Gold

Global financial forecast symbol with globe, 3d render, white background

Is This the End of the Road?

In May of 2008, there was a very similar stock market ‘rally’ as compared to today’s ‘rally’.  Investors believed that the ‘turmoil’ during the latter part of 2007 and the early part of 2008 was permanently over and that we were headed towards a strong economic growth!

In actuality, it merely masked the ‘declining economic collapse’.  The same situation is happening, all over again, even as you are reading this article.  There are numerous flashing red lights, currently while the stock markets is ‘collapsing’ once again, just as it did during the beginning of the spring of 2008!

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There have now been four consecutive quarters in which corporate earnings have declined. The profits from the SPX were down over 7.1 percent during the first quarter of this year.

The U.S. markets have now entered the next phase – a stock market downturn. The global financial system is now starting to ‘unravel’ which will have far reaching implications!

In fact, the real truth of the matter, is now about to worsen, from this point of time and onwards!

While this country has 100 million American people, who are unemployed and searching for work, and yet are unable to find any, I say this is a major RED WARNING ALERT that must now need be heard loud and clearly!

According to the FED, forty-seven percent of all Americans are not able to come up with $400.00 in case of an actual emergency situation, that they may incur.  They would either need to sell personal belongings or borrow the money, somehow!

The majority of Americans are now living from paycheck to paycheck: (http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/my-secret-shame/476415/).

 

In December of 2015, when the FED raised their interest rates, for the first time, in almost a decade, they had projected a one percent ‘hike’ in 2016. I was apprehensive of their prediction and had forecasted that the FED would not “materially” hike rates!

The FED later backtracked their estimates to half of a percentage point ‘hike’, in 2016 during their March meeting.

The chances of a June 2016 ‘hike’ are low to nil as the “Brexit” referendum is being held only one week after that FED meeting. If the U.K. votes for a “Brexit” from the European Union, then the financial implications may wreak havoc on the already fragile global economies. Hence, the FED will not chance raising it especially before such a significant and important event.

Similarly, post July 2016, the U.S. Presidential race will ‘heat up’ and the FED will not want to raise interest rates prior to knowing what the next Presidents’ ‘economic policy’ will be. However, if the world economy falters, the FED will have to follow the other Central Banks and ‘restart’ QE.

The timing of a stock market ‘crash’ is presently within our reach. All signs are pointing towards a higher price for gold; both in the near-term and the long-term.  Enforced negative interest rates which are more of the FEDs’ Quantitative Easing (QE) and the race to devalue the U.S. dollar. This proves to be quite bullish for gold. The timing of all of these concurrent events are affecting the gold market!

The rise of the stock market is widely viewed today as the result of ‘Quantitative Easing’(QE).  A bandage was placed on that financial crisis which was never structurally repaired. Today, I believe that investors have long since given up on the FEDs’ bond buying as a means of repairing the economy.  There is so much skepticism, at this point, as to what direction the equity-market is trending – Up or Down?

SP500 Weekly Chart

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The response from the FED was to ‘debase’ the U.S. dollar as reflected in its’ decline of 4.7% thus far in 2016.  Treasury bond yields have dropped well below 2%.  Something has truly gone horribly wrong within the economy!  However, the FED is trying to put up a brave front.  They have asserted that they are considering a ‘hike’ in their June 2016 meeting, but this is very misleading as there will be no “material” short-term interest rate hike in my opinion.

Monthly US Dollar Index:

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Weekly SP500 Stock Index

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Daily Gold Chart

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These problems that exist within all of these markets are that of the global Central Banks, which are sending their mixed messages. They are actually driving the dollar higher for the time being.

Two weeks ago, the Bank of Japan did not provide more monetary accommodation, as was expected, at that time; whereas last week, BOJ announced they would do so. Therefore, the dollar rose up whereas other currencies, including the Euro and the Yen, fell rather hard.  This reaction resulted in both metals and stocks going down.

The three Central Banks have now reversed their prior announcements regarding monetary policy, within the last month. First, the ECB and then the FED and now the BOJ.

The FED is currently working on a different scenario in which they are stress testing negative Treasury bills. This scenario, in which the interest rate on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill becomes negative, in the second quarter of 2016 and then declines to -0.5% remaining at that level until the first quarter of 2019.

The Fed stated, “The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.”   (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/rates-less-than-zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016 ).

Gold prices are surging this year and that has ‘the smart money’ flocking towards the yellow metal.

During this global contraction, it is only a matter of a very short period of time before the stock market reflects this reality.

Truly, this is the beginning of ‘The Great Reset’!

 

CONCLUSION:

In short, big things have slowly been unfolding that will be not only life changing but will change the entire financial situation of the world.

The good news is that there are many ways to profit and prosper from these events. A few simple and well time positions can yield huge results for the savvy trader and investor.

Follow my lead as we place special ETF trades to prosper during the pending market collapse:www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

link to article: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-road/

FED

A Walk Through a Cemetery in France

Bob Moriarty
Archives
May 14, 2016

After hearing the comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin to the UN in September of 2015 I realized it was time for me to try to write the book others have been telling me I needed to write since 1970, about my experiences in war.

Putin’s speech said things no American politician would dare discuss. He talked about America’s disastrous policies in the Middle East.

“But how did it actually turn out? Rather than bringing about reforms, an aggressive foreign interference has resulted in a brazen destruction of national institutions and the lifestyle itself. Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress, we got violence, poverty and social disaster. Nobody cares a bit about human right, including the right to life. I cannot help asking those who have caused the situation; do you realize what you’ve done? But I am afraid no one is going to answer that. Indeed, policies based on self-conceit and belief in one’s exceptionality and impunity have never been abandoned.”

I did the book in three weeks. After all, I have been writing it in my head for 47 years. All I accomplished in three weeks was to finish typing it. I surprised myself; it was better than I thought it would be.

Then I tried to figure out how to get it into print. The natural publisher seemed to be the Naval Institute Press. After all I was the youngest Naval Aviator in the Vietnam era and flew some 832 missions in combat. I sent them the first twenty pages and a cover letter detailing my background at the first of November. I figured it would take them a week or so to get back to me and by then I’d be about finished. I completed the book and I’m still waiting to hear from them. Time passes at the speed of molasses in winter in the publishing business it seems.

A 321gold reader, who is also an editor, emailed me from Japan, and we polished the book and I figured I should self-publish, at least on iTunes and Kindle format. While I’ve been an Apple aficionado since Christ was a corporal, I found working with Apple to be far more work than it was worth. On the other hand, working with Amazon to put a book into Kindle format was about as hard as falling off a bike. Once the Kindle version was up, I thought I would give CreateSpace a shot at making a paperback version.

Much to my astonishment, Amazon can print one paperback book at a time through CreateSpace. There is no minimum order for books to be printed. That’s handy. If you go to one of the many self-publishing houses and have to place an order for 1000-3000 books in order to get the price down for a hardback, you will find yourself waltzing around stacked boxes of books to get to your bed.

You can have the greatest book in the world and post it on Kindle and CreateSpace but before you do you need a cover. For the first printing of my book we used a picture of an F-4B with some napalm canisters in front of it. I put the book up, got some sales and a few people didn’t like the cover.

Today you can make a major change to a book or its cover in a day. It took me longer. I went to a site that offers custom designs from hundreds of artists from all over the world. I wanted something that showed not only the tools of war but the cost as well. It was handy but the entire process took about two weeks to get and judge the potential cover.

The design I chose showed an F-4 dropping bombs over a jungle at the top and a military cemetery at the bottom. Neither the government nor the actual military ever want to show their citizens what the real costs of war are not only in gold but also in blood. So you never see a heroic war film set in a cemetery when they all should be. I was quite happy with the 2nd cover. The $399 I paid for the design was well spent.

In November I needed some peace and quiet to type the book so I called in a marker from a friend who had offered the use of his retreat in The Alps. I stayed in the snowy mountains for almost a month working. Somehow I managed to capture not only the end of fall but also the beginning of winter. It was pretty nice.

In early March I took a vehicle from England to my mountain hideaway. The trip was about 600 miles and even with the great roads in Europe it was too far for a one-day drive. So in advance I made up my mind to stop for the night near Reims east of Paris. I went to booking.com and fed in my location and asked for a nearby B&B. It found one, highly rated, near my location at a good price. I was driving down this tiny country road west of Reims when I came across a giant military cemetery.

Since I had only finished the 2nd cover of the book a week or so before and knew how easy it was to change the design, I stopped and took a lot of pictures. Then I walked through the well-tended cemetery. As I strolled I read each of the grave markers. The graves were of young men from 17 into their 30s. They all died in early September of 1914 at the start of WWI.

3rd cover

Most people will still remember what ignited WWI but they probably have forgotten or never knew the nuances of how the war actually began. Obviously there was the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his pregnant wife on June 28 of 1914. Austria-Hungary intended to use the incident as an excuse to attack Serbia. Russia supported the Serbs so they mobilized, then Germany mobilized, so France mobilized to support their ally by treaty, Russia. England made it clear that they would back France in case of war and they mobilized as well.

Germany believed they could end the pending war with a swift victory over the French and British troops in France. They invaded Belgium and bypassed the French forts guarding the border with Germany. All of a sudden the entire world was at war without anyone in particular to blame when in fact everyone in general was responsible.

If the stupidity of yesterday sounds a lot like the stupidity of today, perhaps there is a reason. Nato just launched a “missile defense shield” in Romania ostensibly to protect Europe from Iranian missiles fired at it. Unless Nato knows something utterly unknown to the rest of the world, Iran has no conflict of any sort with Europe. Not content with just infuriating Russia, the US seems determined to create as many powerful enemies as possible in the South China Sea where they continue to ignore Chinese warnings to avoid what China considers their territorial waters.

In 1648 to end the Thirty Years’ War, the countries of Europe agreed to a new concept of sovereign nations in an agreement called the Treaty of Westphalia. That is, every nation had a right to self-defense and secure borders without outside interference. Later international doctrine such as the Nuremberg Trials determined that wars of aggression were the “supreme international crime.”

Under the Bush Doctrine the concept of independent and secure states was turned on its head with the US claiming a new right of preemptive warfare against anyone who might ever be an enemy of America. Should Russia and/or China claim a similar right of preemptive self-defense, they could feel justified on a first strike against the US and be at least as legally justified as the US attacks on Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, and Libya.

It’s hard to imagine the carnage involved in a World War. My walk through two French cemeteries from the opening days of WWI brought that home to me. The crosses lined up as far as the eye could see. As you walk down a row and inspect what are but forgotten names now, a hundred years later, you cannot help but wonder what life would have been like for those young French soldiers with the ribbon of their lives clipped all too early.

The Germans closed within 30 km of Paris. If only they could capture the city, the war would end. But a stupid German general, and are there really any other sort, disobeyed his orders and turned to the southeast to chase down a faltering French army on the verge of collapse. His actions opened a 30-mile gap in the German lines. The French were quick to take advantage. Meanwhile the British general in charge of the British forces needed a swift kick up the backside to rush his men into battle.

In what was called the Miracle of the Marne, the French put together a fleet of six hundred taxis to rush fresh soldiers to the battle. It was little more than a symbolic gesture but isn’t war little more than a collection of symbolic gestures? The tide turned, the Germans retreated and began digging trenches for a new style of warfare unknown in history.

The battle was significant for a number of reasons. It ended the concept of cavalry charges across open ground since machine guns could slaughter hundreds of men in minutes. It began trench warfare that lasted another four years. In the first half of September 1914, the French lost over 100,000 soldiers. They [the French] lost 1.3 million during the entire four years of the war and lost 7.5% of that total in a two-week period.

One of the cemeteries I walked through was filled with some of those men. It was moving. War costs not only money but also blood. WWI bankrupted the UK, destroyed the Russian Empire and caused the Russian Revolution, ended the Ottoman Empire and the Austria-Hungary Empire. No one really won. No one wins any war. But everyone loses. All that matters is just how much damage you have done to your own country by participating in a stupid war.

Many scholars of war agree that the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles signed in 1919 directly led to the rise of Hitler and WWII. So a war begun over something as simple as an assassination of a minor royal figure ultimately led to the deaths of 17 million in WWI and 60 million in WWII.

I called my book The Art of Peace. It can be ordered from Amazon in either Kindle format or paperback for either $14.99 or $19.99.

It’s the story of a young man going to war and his feelings about war in the hindsight of fifty years of history. It’s a pretty good book. I’m proud of it. You don’t need to read the book to understand just how I feel about stupid wars. Just go spend a day walking through a military cemetery and you will know exactly my feelings.

Article source: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty051416.html

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MGX Contractor Completes Capex Report for Lithum Carbonate Plant

2016-05-09 09:58 ET – News Release

Mr. Jared Lazerson reports

MGX MINERALS RECEIVES INITIAL CAPEX REPORT FOR LITHIUM CARBONATE PLANT

MGX Minerals Inc. has received the initial capital expenditure (capex) report for a lithium carbonate production plant from engineering consultant Cementation AG. The capex budget is the second part of the previously received initial process design and scoping study (see press release dated April 14, 2016).

MGX engaged Cementation AG to analyze extraction of minerals from the heavily mineralized brine within the Fox Creek and Swan Hills areas, which are part of the company’s portfolio of Alberta lithium properties. Cementation AG formulated a detailed initial capex budget based on quotations from potential vendors in addition to applying in-house expertise and experience. The capex plan provides a positive basis for the company to proceed with engineering of an initial 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) lithium carbonate production plant.

Scoping study highlights

Further details of the proposed process and production plant design are provided as follows:

  • Reduction of production time of lithium carbonate by greater than 99 per cent over current traditional brine production — one day versus 18 months;
  • Multiple end market products including lithium carbonate, sodium chloride and calcium chloride with potential for addition of boron and bromine production;
  • Strategic sourcing of reagents and energy to reduce input costs;
  • Application of energy-efficient technology to significantly reduce potential operating expenditures (opex);
  • Utilization of existing oil and gas infrastructure and expertise to reduce capex and opex.

The study includes flowsheet recommendations and operational expenditure (opex) calculations to process lithium-bearing brine of 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) in a commercial plant. The process is designed to rapidly separate brine minerals to produce various industrial mineral compounds. The study also includes a metallurgy testing protocol. MGX is currently evaluating metallurgical laboratories for bench testing of the proposed process. As a result of the positive capex report, Cementation AG has provided a six-month engineering and development project plan to follow metallurgy testing for the detailed engineering of the proposed lithium carbonate plant.

Alberta lithium properties

MGX has staked or entered into purchase agreements to acquire a 100-per-cent undivided interest in 24 metallic and industrial mineral permits throughout the province of Alberta encompassing over 1,150 square miles (300,000 hectares). These permits were acquired based on compilation of historic exploration for lithium by the province as well as oil and gas well data and known geology. The permits are all geological associated with current and past-producing oil fields.

Qualified person

This press release was prepared under the supervision and review of Andris Kikauka, PGeo, and vice-president of exploration for MGX Minerals. Mr. Kikauka is a non-independent qualified person within the meaning of National Instrument 43-101 standards.

We seek Safe Harbor.

© 2016 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.