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Does The Precious Metal Market Need Another Derivatives Exchange?

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Precious metals have significantly outperformed all other asset classes with year to date gains of 44% in Silver, 31% in Platinum, 28% in Palladium, and 26% in Gold. 2016 marks the highest recorded annual gain for gold in 36 years. Investment demand for the metal is 16% higher this year than the previous recorded high reached in 2009. Attempting to capitalize on this growing investment interest, the London Metal Exchange (LME) announced this week its plans to launch a gold and silver London based listed derivatives exchange in the first half of 2017. The new exchange will compete directly with the existing London over-the-counter market (OTC) system, the listed COMEX exchange in the U.S, and the Shanghai exchange in China. Contract sizes will be identical to those traded on the COMEX exchange.

London’s role as a major precious metal trading center harkens back to the 17th century but volumes have recently eroded as major banks pulled out of London precious metal trading due to increased regulatory scrutiny since the financial crisis and accusations of past market misconduct. The local precious metal market has an annual turnover of $5 trillion per year.

The 139 yr old LME has traditionally focused on the industrial metals with the exception of a brief and unsuccessful 3 yr foray into gold during the 1980’s. In 2014, the LME lost the bid to administer the important London gold benchmark fixing to one of its major rivals, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). The London precious metal market is administered by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and dominated by privately negotiated (OTC) off exchange transactions. Listed trades have historically flowed to the U.S. COMEX exchange but have gravitated in recent years towards the Shanghai exchange as physical gold demand in Asia continues to outpace that of the U.S. and Europe combined.

30 banks were initially approached to take part in the LME venture but only 5 ultimately committed to the scheme. Important to note and critical to the long term viability of the nascent exchange is that none of the members are large gold clearing banks and the LBMA itself, the arbiter of good delivery standards, is not involved in the project. Like the OTC market, the new contracts will settle on an unallocated basis. This means that once the contracts reach maturity, investors own a fractional interest in a pool of gold or silver held by a bank but not specific bars. In the event of a bank failure, like in the case of Lehman Brothers 8 years ago, investors rank as unsecured creditors without a specific claim to physical gold or silver bars. This, in my opinion, is the critical flaw of the LME proposal. The new venue might be useful for high frequency traders that seek to arbitrage minute price differences between exchanges around the globe or front run customer orders but it does not offer investors a new or more secure alternative to what is already widely available in other markets. The financial crisis made it abundantly clear to long term precious metal investors that gold and silver should be held in physical form and outside of the banking system.

By Eric Schreiber from EMS Capital

Disclaimer© 2010 Junior Gold ReportJunior Gold Report’ Newsletter: Junior Gold Report’s Newsletter is published as a copyright publication of Junior Gold Report (JGR). No Guarantee as to Content: Although JGR attempts to research thoroughly and present information based on sources we believe to be reliable, there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any statements expressed are subject to change without notice. JGR, its associates, authors, and affiliates are not responsible for errors or omissions. Consideration for Services: JGR, it’s editor, affiliates, associates, partners, family members, or contractors may have an interest or position in featured, written-up companies, as well as sponsored companies which compensate JGR. JGR has been paid by the company written up. Thus, multiple conflicts of interests exist. Therefore, information provided herewithin should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. No Offer to Sell Securities: JGR is not a registered investment advisor. JGR is intended for informational, educational and research purposes only. It is not to be considered as investment advice. Subscribers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and consult with their own independent financial and tax advisors with respect to any investment opportunity. No statement or expression of any opinions contained in this report constitutes an offer to buy or sell the shares of the companies mentioned herein. Links: JGR may contain links to related websites for stock quotes, charts, etc. JGR is not responsible for the content of or the privacy practices of these sites. Release of Liability: By reading JGR, you agree to hold Junior Gold Report its associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred.

Forward Looking Statements
Except for statements of historical fact, certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements are usually identified by our use of certain terminology, including “will”, “believes”, “may”, “expects”, “should”, “seeks”, “anticipates”, “has potential to”, or “intends’ or by discussions of strategy, forward looking numbers or intentions. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results or achievements to be materially different from any future results or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts, and include but are not limited to, estimates and their underlying assumptions; statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to the effectiveness of the Company’s business model; future operations, products and services; the impact of regulatory initiatives on the Company’s operations; the size of and opportunities related to the market for the Company’s products; general industry and macroeconomic growth rates; expectations related to possible joint and/or strategic ventures and statements regarding future performance. Junior Gold Report does not take responsibility for accuracy of forward looking statements and advises the reader to perform own due diligence on forward looking numbers or statements.

Disclaimer© 2010 Junior Gold ReportJunior Gold Report’ Newsletter: Junior Gold Report’s Newsletter is published as a copyright publication of Junior Gold Report (JGR). No Guarantee as to Content: Although JGR attempts to research thoroughly and present information based on sources we believe to be reliable, there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any statements expressed are subject to change without notice. JGR, its associates, authors, and affiliates are not responsible for errors or omissions. Consideration for Services: JGR, it’s editor, affiliates, associates, partners, family members, or contractors may have an interest or position in featured, written-up companies, as well as sponsored companies which compensate JGR. JGR has been paid by the company written up. Thus, multiple conflicts of interests exist. Therefore, information provided herewithin should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. No Offer to Sell Securities: JGR is not a registered investment advisor. JGR is intended for informational, educational and research purposes only. It is not to be considered as investment advice. Subscribers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and consult with their own independent financial and tax advisors with respect to any investment opportunity. No statement or expression of any opinions contained in this report constitutes an offer to buy or sell the shares of the companies mentioned herein. Links: JGR may contain links to related websites for stock quotes, charts, etc. JGR is not responsible for the content of or the privacy practices of these sites. Release of Liability: By reading JGR, you agree to hold Junior Gold Report its associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred.

Forward Looking Statements
Except for statements of historical fact, certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements are usually identified by our use of certain terminology, including “will”, “believes”, “may”, “expects”, “should”, “seeks”, “anticipates”, “has potential to”, or “intends’ or by discussions of strategy, forward looking numbers or intentions. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results or achievements to be materially different from any future results or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts, and include but are not limited to, estimates and their underlying assumptions; statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to the effectiveness of the Company’s business model; future operations, products and services; the impact of regulatory initiatives on the Company’s operations; the size of and opportunities related to the market for the Company’s products; general industry and macroeconomic growth rates; expectations related to possible joint and/or strategic ventures and statements regarding future performance. Junior Gold Report does not take responsibility for accuracy of forward looking statements and advises the reader to perform own due diligence on forward looking numbers or statements.

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