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Gold: Trumped

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Full Article: Gold: Trumped

By: John R. Ing

Since the 2008 recession, US households have lost nearly $13 trillion. Nine years after the financial crisis, the Trump reflation rally is up nearly 10 percent and since his election, U.S. household net worth have climbed an astonishing $93 trillion, on subsidised credit and hopes that Trump will bring back prosperity through growth. That ascent also reflects the overvaluation of real estate and the stock market leading to the highest consumer confidence since the peak of the dot.com bubble. And although, the Federal Reserve increased rates a quarter point, only the third time in 50 years, there are numerous credit distress stories from interest-sensitive car loans to shopping centres and of course retail spending.

While Candidate Trump’s promises to boost economic output through tax cuts, raising tariffs and infrastructure spending were successful enough to get him elected by the so-called forgotten American, President Trump’s failure to replace Obamacare has cast a cloud over his entire White House program. Now his tax reform plan faces even larger hurdles, sending a wave of risk aversion throughout global markets. The threats are both external and internal. The gap between campaign rhetoric and reliability is vast. The fault lines run deep. The judiciary also took a hit as the Republicans exercised the “nuclear option” to appoint Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, breaking 200 plus years of Senate tradition. Mr. Trump is hobbled by his rhetoric and his fractious party, many of who owe their seat to voters rather than Trump’s coattails, are exercising independence. That other branch of government, Congress found its voice having an important say in Mr. Trump’s vision and so everywhere, existing trends are being called into question. What will happen when the debt ceiling comes next, since he will need Democrats to avert a government shutdown by the end of April?

Full Article: Gold: Trumped

By: John R. Ing

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