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Investors Better Hope This Time Really Is Different

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Full Article: Investors Better Hope This Time Really Is Different

By: The Felder Report

 

“This time is different.” Sir John Templeton famously called these, “the four most dangerous words in investing,” but that hasn’t stopped many pundits from pointing out the obvious ways in which this time is truly different from the past. And I don’t disagree with them. In fact, we have seen this plenty of times before. During the late-1920’s stocks rose to valuations that were unprecedented at the time. They did so again in the late-1990’s. And it’s true once again that things are now very different than what we have witnessed previously in the markets.

The median stock in the S&P 500 has never been valued higher than it is today. Corporate profit margins over the past decade have soared and sustained at heights rarely if ever seen before. In the past, margin debt was a valuable way to assess risk in the stock market. This relationship has broken down in recent years. The Buffett Yardstick was also not just a good way to assess forward 10-year returns for stocks but also 3-year risk in the stock market, as well. During this cycle this relationship has also failed. Finally, the relationship between demographics and equity valuations has also broken down in recent years.

Full Article: Investors Better Hope This Time Really Is Different

By: The Felder Report

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