Tag Archives: educational

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Stock Market Elliott Wave Count, Economic Cycle and Equities Cycle

Stock Market Elliott Wave Count, Economic Cycle and Equities Cycle

As you know a picture is worth 1000 words so consider this short yet detailed post a juicy 2000+ word report on the current state of the stock market and economic cycle.

The charts below I think will help you see where the US stock market and economic cycles appear to be.

The first image shows two cycles, the blue one is the stock market cycle and which sectors typically outperform during specific times within the cycle. Here you will see that during the late stages of a bull market the safe haven plays become the preferred choice for investors – Energy and Precious Metals.

Typically, the stock market tops before the economic (business) cycle does. Why? Because investors can see sales starting to slow and that earnings will start to weaken and share prices will fall, so the market participants start selling shares before the masses see and hear about a weakening economy. The stock market usually moves 3-9 months before the economic cycle change I known by the masses.

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Stock Market Topping According to Sector Analysis

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Elliott Wave Count – My Educated Guess

Elliott wave theory is a tough strategy to follow. Meaning, if you gave the same chart to 5 different people you would likely have 3 or 5 very different wave counts.

Recently I have seen a flurry of EW charts on the SP500 wave count which I do not think are correct. When I do Elliott Wave counts I like to use more than just price. I look into things deeper and use the market internals, volume flows, and overall market sentiment during those times. They must all be screaming extreme FEAR in the market in order for me to count it as a wave low.

Fear is much easier to read and time than greed. So based on waves of fear and I can plot the rest of the waves. By doing this, I feel it gives a truer reading of significant highs and lows we should use in our analysis.

See my analysis below for a visual…

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Stock Market & Economic Cycle Conclusion:

In short, the current market analysis, in my opinion, is still very bearish and this could actually be the ultimate last opportunity to get short the market near the highs before we dive into a full blown bear market in the next 3-5 months.

I will admit, the market is trying VERY hard to convince us it wants to go higher as it flirts with the recent highs for its second time in the past 8 months. I know it is doing its job because so many traders and investors are changing their tune from bearish to SUPER BULLISH.

I don’t see it that way JUST yet, but it could happen as the market can do and will do whatever it wants. But all my analysis (much more than what you see here) points to substantially lower prices over the next year.

To learn more and get my ETF swing trades and long term investing signals join me at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Hiding the Elephant: Fort Knox’s Vanishing Act

Kal Kotecha PhD

In one of Harry Houdini’s finest moments as a magician, he made a 6,000-pound, Asian elephant disappear – into thin air. Billed as the “world’s most incredible conjuring illusion”, Houdini swept onto the stage at the New York Hippodrome in 1918 and proclaimed “allow me to introduce Jennie, the world’s only vanishing elephant.”

The elephant was then escorted into a large colored cabinet. The doors were closed. The stage was set and the drum roll began. Moments later, with a flourish, Houdini flung open the doors of the box. Six thousand pounds of elephantine flesh had vanished into thin air. The crowd went wild.

In the years that followed, Houdini presented that trick to wide-eyed audiences of a million and more. Magic historian, Jim Steinmeyer, exactingly chronicled this – and other – conjuring tricks in “Hiding the Elephant”, an exposé of stage illusions.

In 1933, with America five-years deep into The Depression, the stage was set for a magic act of unprecedented proportions. History shows a wicked warlock at work.

On March 6, 1933, Executive Order (EO) 6073 was passed by Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR), the 32nd President of the United States in an attempt to solve the dire banking crisis. Executive orders have been around since 1789, allowing Presidents to issue legally binding orders unilaterally, without the consent of Congress. During his Presidential tenure, from 1933 to 1945, Roosevelt would issue 3,728 Executive Orders. This was his third and it was a doozy.

Just two days after Roosevelt was inaugurated as President, he proclaimed a “banking holiday”. From and including Monday, March 6, 1933 to Thursday, March 9, 1933 no bank “would pay out, export, earmark, or permit the withdrawal or transfer in any manner or by any device whatsoever of any gold or silver coin or bullion or take any other action which might facilitate the hoarding thereof…” Sold to the American people as an attempt to control speculation and regulate interest rates, he closed America’s banks, thwarting customers from withdrawing their paper money holdings or converting their holdings to gold.

With a swish of his magic wand, Roosevelt mastered “complete control over America’s banking system”, expanding his Presidential powers exponentially in the process.

In his first “Fireside Speech” (which burned the backside of many Americans) on March 12, 1933 Roosevelt declared “Let me make it clear to you that the banks will take care of all needs, except, of course, the hysterical demands of hoarders, and it is my belief that hoarding during the past week has become an exceedingly unfashionable pastime in every part of our nation. It needs no prophet to tell you that when the people find that they can get their money — that they can get it when they want it for all legitimate purposes — the phantom of fear will soon be laid. People will again be glad to have their money where it will be safely taken care of and where they can use it conveniently at any time. I can assure you, my friends, that it is safer to keep your money in a reopened bank than it is to keep it under the mattress.”

On June 16, 1933, EO 6073 passed into legislation as the “Emergency Banking Act (EBA)”. After only 40 minutes’ debate in the House of Representatives, with an unknown author and no printed copies available for members of the House, the Bill was passed swiftly and without due process. The wand was waved again.

At the time, Congressman Lundeen, appalled at the reckless lack of due process involved in the passing of this Bill said “I want to put myself on record against procedure of this kind and against the use of such methods in passing legislation affecting millions of lives and billions of dollars. It seems to me that under this bill thousands of small banks will be crushed and wiped out of existence, and that money and credit control will be still further concentrated in the hands of those who now hold the power…. I am suspicious of this railroading of bills through our House of Representatives, and I refuse to vote for a measure unseen and unknown.

Meanwhile, Executive Order 6073 paved the way for Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933.

This Executive Order (EO) made it a criminal act to possess gold coins, gold bullion and gold certificates within the continental United States and ordered that the hoarded gold be delivered to the Government on or before May 1, 1933. The official price of gold was raised from $20.67 to $35/ounce.

Although it is unknown just how much gold was confiscated by means of Executive Order 6102, numbers suggest that by January 1934, there were 195.1 million ounces and 227.9 million ounces by August 1934.

The Government had to have some place to hoard the confiscated gold. So, Executive Order 6102 paved the way to Fort Knox. The U.S. Treasury Department began construction of the United States Bullion Depository (USBD) in 1936. Completed in December of that year, at a cost of US$560,000, the Gold Vault sits in a 109,000-acre Army enclave in Fort Knox, Kentucky.

The U.S. Mint states that 147.3 million ounces of gold are now tucked into Fort Knox. Guarded by Apache helicopter gunships and tucked into a bunker with a bomb-proof roof and thick granite walls, you’d think that 147.3 million ounces of gold would be safe in the vault. While Treasury officials insist that the “gold is all there”, why the resistance to a public audit? Congress begs off, saying it will cost US$60 million to test the gold. Other figures bandied about suggest US$15 million. Other so-called experts contest both figures, stating that an independent audit and assay could be conducted for as little as US$15,000.

More nefarious are that the numbers don’t add up…and never have. In his article The Great American Disaster: How Much Gold Remains In Fort Knox?, dated August 27, 2010, Chris Weber states that, at their peak in 1949, the Fort Knox reserves reputedly numbered 701 million ounces – 69.9% of all the gold on the planet. The latest figures reported by the U.S. Mint state that 147.3 million ounces of gold are now tucked into Fort Knox. Treasury subsequently downgraded this figure from 264 million ounces of gold, a decline of 79%! Lucy, you got some ‘splainin’ to do.

Clearly, the road to – and from – Fort Knox is paved in gold and not-so-gold intentions. Tales of pillaging, profiteering and skullduggery abound at the crossroads of Bullion Boulevard and Gold Vault Road. Masked interlopers didn’t rob the USDB. Reputed to be the second most secure place in the world (as reported in The Blogington’s post of September 21, 2010), the video cams, armed guards, attack helicopters, armored personnel carriers, and 30,000 soldiers guarding Fort Knox guaranteed that.

For over 50 years, while domestically it was a crime to hold gold, there is little doubt that well-heeled Americans – and America’s enemies, operating offshore, were able to procure gold at the bargain basement price of $35/ounce.

Not surprising that Fort Knox’s 22-ton door is locked to an audit. For almost 40 years, no visitors have been allowed in the grounds of the Gold Depository. Considered one of the eight most secure places in the world, we’re not getting in for a sneak peek anytime soon. In the last recorded “audit”, in the early 50’s, a group of Congressmen and Senators were taken on a quick tour of Fort Knox and allowed to peek into a few vaults. They reported seeing “orange-hued gold bars”. Lucy, you got more ‘splainin’ to do.

In his article “The Great American Disaster: How Much Gold Remains In Fort Knox?”, Chris Weber outlines details about the one “audit” of Fort Knox, as follows:

The only audit that has ever been done of the gold inside Ft Knox was done days after Dwight Eisenhower became President in January of 1953. After 20 years of Democratic presidents, the American public wanted to be sure that the gold confiscated from them was still there. Thus, the new President ordered an audit within hours after taking office.
The central problem was that it wasn’t much of an audit. To sum it up:
1. Representatives of the audited group were allowed to make the rules governing the audit. No outside private experts were allowed.
2. Those government bureaucrats involved were inexperienced in their tasks, by their own admission.
3. The entire audit of the largest gold hoard ever concentrated in history lasted only seven days.
4. Only a fraction of the gold was actually tested. Later, the officials put this fraction at just 5%.
5. Based on that fraction, the official committee reported that, in their opinion, all the holdings would have matched their records if they’d all been tested.
6. If the audit was accurate, the fact remains that almost 80% of it went overseas in the coming years. If the audit was not accurate, the amount of gold lost could have been even more.

On September 23, 1974, Mary Brooks, the Director of the United States Mint, led a tour of members of Congress and the news media through the USBD. There was no audit or inventory of the gold and no other public “inspection” has been allowed since then.

Why won’t the Mint comment about how much gold is there? Perhaps the acid test is not so much as what has happened to the gold in Fort Knox; but rather is there gold in Fort Knox? And if so, how much…..or how little?

In a feat worthy of The Great Houdini himself, the Fort Knox gold may be the World’s Greatest Vanishing Act ever.

Source: Wikipedia-executive order 6102

Kal Kotecha PhD
Happy investing!

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The Lies You Are Told About Gold

For the last 5 years, most were caught on the wrong side of the gold market.  As gold was topping in 2011, most market participants, and analysts alike, were caught looking the wrong way.  Most were uber-bullish when the market was topping, and remained so almost the entire way down.

Why did so many get it wrong in 2011?  Why did most get it wrong for the last 4 years? Because most market participants and analysts do not understand gold.  Feel free to read that again: most market participants and analysts do not understand gold.  And, worse yet, most have bought into or sell you on the lies and fallacies about gold and are not burdened by the true facts presented through our recent history.

You Are Being Sold Lies

Just recently, I read the following in an article on Gold-Eagle.com:

Gold is the final safe haven left to securely invest in which has stood the test of time over thousands of years. It has maintained its’ value throughout at least the last five thousand years. The sudden and most recent ‘break out’ in gold is proof that its’ safe-haven status is still intact. The price of gold is rising more on the expectation of the next financial crisis.  Imagine how high the price of gold could go when the real crisis impacts world economies.” (See the following link for complete article:  http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/price-gold-going-ballistic )

I want you to consider a couple of questions about this paragraph before we prove the faulty nature of such thinking.  First, is gold really a “safe haven” from a financial crisis?  If you are willing to remove your “gold-bug” blinders, you will soon see the answer is “no.” Second, how can anyone believe that the recent break out in gold is “proof of its safe haven status” when the equity markets have rallied alongside it?  It’s a safe haven from what – a market rally?  Do equity markets also rise on the “expectation of the next financial crisis?” Lastly, the final sentence of the above-quoted paragraph is nothing more than an emotionally charged play upon your fears, as well as your greed.

At the end of the day, this is nothing more than the same type of “gold-bug” thinking that got most of you in trouble in 2011.  Have you not learned your lesson yet?  If you believe in such erroneous thinking, then you should never see gold rally alongside the equity markets and it should absolutely never fall in price when we experience a financial crisis. But, is that true about gold?

No.  These are some of the fallacies presented in order to either sell you “analysis,” or to sell you gold.  It preys upon your fears and is not based in fact.  Do you want to make an investment decision based upon your fears or based upon the truth?

These fear mongers will not point out to you that, since early February, the metals and the miners have been rallying WITH the equity markets.  They will not mention this to you since it presents a fact in opposition to their underlying erroneous thesis.  Moreover, this is not the first time that we have seen gold rally along with the equity markets, nor will it be the last.  I believe this seeming “correlation” will eventually be recognized within our markets, and it can last for several years as we have seen in past history.  But, that is simply not what you are told will happen by most of those telling you to buy goldBased upon their faulty thinking, the market is about to crash, and gold is about to skyrocket.  Yet, history disagrees with their premise.

What Does History Teach Us?

Allow me to show you why only expecting an inverse correlation between equities and metals is just outright wrong.  Of course, we can always point to the fact that metals and equity markets have been rallying together, with over double-digit returns, for the last several months.  But, let’s put that aside for now.

The main premise of these fear mongers is that gold will certainly protect you during a major market crash.  So, let’s take a look at the 2007-2009 timeframe, which evidenced the most significant period of market volatility since the Great Depression, to see if the metals acted as a “safe haven” during the period of time a safe haven was most needed in modern times.

We all know that the S&P 500 topped in October of 2007 and began an estimated 300-point decline into March of 2008. Then we saw a corrective bounce in the equities for a couple of months before it continued to head down. During that same period of time, even while the markets were heading lower, the metals continued to rally strongly. Here we have “evidence” of precious metals rising during a period of market volatility. So, maybe they are a safe haven.

But, when we then look towards the May 2008-March 2009 decline in the equity market, not only did the metals not rally, but they experienced significant declines within that time frame. In fact, gold lost a little more than 30% during the massive equity market sell off. Yes, you heard me right.  Gold and the equity markets both experienced significant declines TOGETHER.

So, here we are presented with clear evidence that gold did not act like a supposed “safe haven.” Moreover, it failed as a “safe haven” during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, which was the most crucial time period that a safe haven was most needed.

When one is presented with these facts, can one truly have confidence in gold’s “safe haven” status, especially when it failed during the most critical time period since the Great Depression?  Should one rely upon an analyst or salesman who is selling you on the merits of gold’s “safe haven” status in light of the true, hard lessons of recent history?  As George Santayana said, “those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

If you need further evidence, consider this additional fact.  Back in 2008, the folks at Elliott Wave International published a study that showed that in 10 out of 11 recessionary periods since 1945 gold experienced a negative total return.  Maybe you should be rethinking what you have been sold about gold’s “safe haven” status?

On the opposite side of the market, if one simply looks back to the period of time from 2003-2007, we will clearly see that the metals market rallied along with the equity markets for those years.  So, is it really true that the only time gold will rally is when the equity markets are in decline?

Are you starting to question the perspectives you have been “sold” about gold?  If not, then you should.

Time To Consider The Truth

When one is presented with these facts, can you really believe that metals are the “safe haven” everyone claims they are during down markets?   Can one also come to the conclusion that gold and equities markets trade inversely to each other and the reason you should be investing in gold is its “safe haven” status from a financial crisis?  Clearly, the answer is “no,” if you are truly honest in your analysis.

Again, when one actually looks at the facts rather than the supposition, fallacy, and fear being sold by most of the article writers and sellers of gold out there, it tells you to ignore much of what is presented about this market and begin to think for yourself. Much of what you have been fed about this market is simply wrong, and until you are able to look objectively at the market, you will likely see long periods of time where you are on the wrong side of the market purely because you bought into these suppositions, fallacies, and fear.  Or, did you already forget the pain you felt during the decline between 2011-2015?

Why can’t we also believe in gold as a solid investment during periods of time when financial markets rally, as history clearly shows it can be?  One simply needs to develop an appropriate understanding as to when gold will rally along with the equity market or inversely to it.

Sadly, most analysts and investors do not truly understand the gold market, and just regurgitate the same fallacies over and over to prey upon your fears and greed.  Isn’t it about time you look for an objective perspective on gold which understands how the market truly works?

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education. Visit his website:https://www.elliottwavetrader.net. You can contact Avi at: info@elliottwavetrader.net.

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The Big Short–Now the Big Long

Kal Kotecha PhD
We live in an era of fraud in America. Not just in banking, but in government, education, religion, food, even baseball… What bothers me isn’t that fraud is not nice. Or that fraud is mean. For fifteen thousand years, fraud and short sighted thinking have never, ever worked. Not once. Eventually you get caught, things go south. When the hell did we forget all that? I thought we were better than this, I really did.

  • Mark Baum from the Big Short

The Big Short is turning into the Big Long and that is — being long on precious metals. The movie Big Short was based on a true story outlining two separate groups that understood the mortgage crisis and capitalized on it. How did they do this? They investigated who the banks were approving for subprime mortgages. They went to see the properties, interviewed the homeowners and realized that a bubble was forming. Mark Baum asked, “I don’t get it, why are they confessing?” (referring to the mortgage brokers approving just about anyone for a subprime mortgage). His associate replied, “they’re not confessing, they’re bragging.”

In the same light, there may have been some sort of a bubble in gold and gold stocks in 2010 and investors sold. Just like with the 2008 financial and real estate crisis, it overshot to an oversold position. A base in gold has been forming and a breakout looming. The fundamentals for gold look solid and if it can break the $1200 ounce resistance, we could see higher highs. But what are the banks buying now? Do they know something we do not?

In an article by Avery Goodman of Seeking Alpha   http://seekingalpha.com/article/3421396-the-big-long-goldman-sachs-and-hsbc-buy-7_1-tons-of-physical-gold he states: “On August 6, 2015, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) took delivery of a sum total of 7.1 tons of physical gold. No, I have not made any typographical errors. And no, I am not talking about electronic paper claims. I am talking about shiny yellow metal stuff that you can touch and feel. The gold bars were not purchased for bank clients. They were purchased for the banks themselves. How do I know this? They are designated by the exchange as being for delivery to the bank’s “house” accounts at COMEX, not to client accounts. Goldman Sachs, alone, took 3.2 tons worth of physical gold bars. Yet, even as the firm builds its stockpile, Goldman tells clients not to do it. In spite of the antics in the paper-gold market, we know the physical market is on fire. Demand will exceed known supplies by at least 1,350 tons in 2015. More in 2016. But, that won’t stop someone from setting up the paper market in order to buy from the physical market very cheaply. This is because the mysterious gold “supplier of last resort” will fill COMEX physical delivery demand, for the moment at least, no matter how high it rises, and no matter how low other supplies may be.”

This points to some type of “gold manipulation”. Wasn’t there manipulation in the 2008 stock market crash as well as the subprime debacle? Weren’t the banks controlling us like little pawns? hmmmm

Avery Goodman continues: COMEX is designated by the US Financial Stability Council as a “Financial Market Utility” (FMU). The Council was set up by the Dodd-Frank Act, and views any failure of this “too-big-to-fail” entity as likely to lead to widespread contagion in multiple markets. Thus, logically, the US Treasury is willing to, and is draining physical gold from the US gold reserve to bail it out.

Still, regardless of what the US government is doing, why would these two banks make such a huge long-term investment in physical gold bullion bars? Perhaps, we are seeing a “Big Long,” similar to the “Big Short” Goldman Sachs is known to have taken in 2006/07. There are many who believe that we are soon going to see the collapse of a worldwide bond bubble, just as we saw a worldwide collapse of real estate values back then.”

So ask yourself, what side of the fence do you want to be on? The long or the short? Goldman Sachs and HSBC seem to know the answer and they are screaming long on gold. It might be a matter of time when someone will be writing about the Big Long that happened in gold.

 

Happy investing!

Kal Kotecha PhD

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Educational and Fun — How Thinking North Connects Investors

Kal Kotecha PhD

On Wednesday March 30th, I was honoured to accept an invitation to be the guest speaker at “Thinking North” — a new leader in connecting businesses to the investment community. Every two months the best and brightest of Toronto’s business leaders are invited to present their business or company to an audience of investors and financial professionals.

Canada’s Silicon Valley North namely Kitchener-Waterloo, along with the Great Toronto Area hold some of the brightest and finest tech companies in North America. Thinking North assists in connecting these and other sector companies to Toronto’s venture capital.

Thinkingnorth.com is the brainchild of Toronto Venture Capitalist, Steve Singh. After reviewing investor social networks in San Francisco, Toronto and Bogota Colombia, it was readily apparent event originators were more about filling the rink rather than aiming the puck at the top right corner of the net. “For me, it was more about filling the room with the right people and achieving the duality of good/interesting companies at various stages of evolvement pitching to a targeted audience of savvy investors,” says Singh. Together, with Natalie Yavorska, an astute business professional, and Raj Ravindran, entrepreneur, mentor and analyst, Thinkingnorth was born. ThinkingNorth is an arena for sharks, dragons and emerging species.

The night started with introductions followed by my talk. I focused on the importance of tax breaks for corporations and small businesses. Also, where I think the economy is headed and how to capitalize on the technological brain power located between the 401 corridor of Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo.

Following my talk, presentations were made by Venture Capitalists plus six start-up stage companies. They were given five minutes each to represent their business vis-a-vis product/service, competitive influences and monetization strategy.

Jeff Maser from the Tinley Beverage Company opened the round of presentations. The firm manufactures a drinkable vitality supplement containing hemp stalk extract called Hemplify. The drink satisfies more than thirst, it is also an aesthetically pleasing package. Featuring a beautifully-designed sleek bottle, the product contains non-psychoactive terpenes, essential oils, vitamins, electrolytes, and omegas making it a revitalizing source for athletic, contemplative, and creative activities.

Fertilify took the stage next. This company manufactures a health supplement designed to help women support and maintain reproductive health. They have set themselves the ambitious goal of helping modern and career women who delay giving birth, to maintain the proper level of vitamins in order to ensure they do give birth to healthy children. The company’s intelligent and radiant President Lalli Chapman stated, “I started Fertilify to confront the issues facing women’s fertility today, and help do something about it.”

Another company with the theme of hemp-based products was presented by David Vinokurov from Budhubz.com. Vinokurov showcased a new app akin to Air BnB with a focus on 420-friendly guest facilities and dispensary relationships.

Next to be featured was a luxury all natural water company called Flow Water. This product boasts high natural levels of certain minerals such as calcium taken from a family owned water source in Ontario, and also displaying exotic packaging.

Following this was an exciting new career oriented app called Paddle which helps workers navigate the complexities of today’s career cycle. Paddle has already signed agreements with major universities in the U.S., including Harvard and Stanford. Given the current climate wherein people are expected to have many careers in the course of their working life, they hope to revolutionize the way people approach careers and make it easier to hop between different roles and industries.

The closing speaker was probably the most dazzling. Mark Itwaru from Peeks presented a potentially disruptive technology.  With the foresight to patent his ideas surrounding this technology, he has created an application that gives its users a chance to broadcast themselves and be their own wealth creator, simultaneously in real time. A built-in proprietary payment engine makes it possible to drive revenue through a variety of channels, ie. tips, product sales, advertising, and various others. It was exciting to hear about a brilliant and evolving new technology.

After each of the presentations, a panel of venture capitalists and investors had five minutes to ask questions. After all was said and done, the event closed with another round of networking.  Besides being highly informational from an investor perspective, I must say it was loads of fun from a social perspective.

The team at Thinking North are optimistic about the future – no matter what the state of the market, there are always great people doing exceptional work. There is always capital to be accessed for investing in good ideas and projects. Ultimately, organizations such as Thinking North are here to help Toronto play at the top of the league alongside their neighbours in Silicon Valley and to help Canada maintain its braintrust leadership amongst its peers.

Thank-you Steve, Natalie and Raj for creating a much needed venue that connects investors to great projects.

I now have the honour of being on the investment panel for Thinking North. If you are ever in the Toronto area, feel free to attend the event. The next meeting is expected to have close to 500 investor attendees. The information will be posted on ThinkingNorth.com

Happy Investing!

Kal Kotecha PhD